Why AI-driven bookings matter for direct-vs-OTA economics
When a guest asks an AI assistant for a hotel recommendation and books through whichever hotel gets named, that booking typically flows through whatever channel the AI pointed to — often an OTA rather than the hotel's own site, since OTAs tend to have stronger AI visibility today (see our guide on why hotels are invisible to AI search). Every AI-influenced booking that lands on an OTA instead of direct carries a commission the hotel wouldn't otherwise pay.
What inputs drive the estimate
A revenue-at-stake estimate typically starts from your average monthly bookings and average booking value, then applies published assumptions about the share of travelers now using AI to plan trips, the portion of that AI-influenced demand that passes a hotel by when it's invisible, and a blended OTA commission rate for the bookings that land elsewhere instead.
A worked example (hypothetical, for illustration only)
Say a 40-room hotel books 30 rooms a night at an average nightly rate of $150 — roughly $135,000 in monthly room revenue. If a meaningful share of AI-influenced travel demand is passing that hotel by in favor of a competitor, and a portion of what's recovered would otherwise have gone through an OTA at commission, the dollar difference between "visible" and "invisible" can run into thousands of dollars a month. This example is illustrative only — it is not based on a real customer, since Staylight doesn't have published case studies yet.
Direct-vs-OTA attribution, and how others frame it
Some tools in this space, like Hotelrank.ai/Lighthouse Connect AI, frame this as direct-vs-OTA link attribution — tracking which links an AI assistant surfaces and where they point. It's a related but distinct question from a revenue-at-stake estimate, which converts the gap into an actual dollar figure rather than a link count.
What this estimate is, and isn't
This is a directional estimate built from published assumptions, not a guaranteed revenue figure or an audited financial forecast. Every assumption behind the math should be shown alongside the result so you can judge it yourself, rather than accepting a single unexplained number.
Run your own numbers
Staylight's free ROI calculator on the homepage walks through this exact math using your own hotel's figures, with every assumption shown next to the result — no signup required to see a first estimate.